The goal of this blog is to test the idea that we can use math to predict movements of coins. We're not expecting to be right 100% or even 60% of the time. Our goal is simply to understand the limitations of using math and/or charts to predict the movement of securities.
This week, I'm going to stick my neck out, and make a prediction for Bitcoin. I have used to charts to make my prediction. The first chart shows the long term prediction of bitcoin. This is useful for predicting the price one month from now.
Based on the data, we're predicting a long term price increase in the price of Bitcoin. This prediction makes me more confident in any bullish short term price prediction of Bitcoin. It signals to me that right now, the bitcoin price has a headwind.
If we look at the short term pattern, we see a different prediction.
Based on the last 30 days, we're expecting a decrease in bitcoin Price. So, the question remains... Which indicator do you trust?
My personal opinion is that 100 days is an eternity in the world of coins. As such, I'm predicting a slight decrease in the price of bitcoin over the next 7 days.
Check back next Tuesday to see if I was right...
AS A SIDE NOTE...
It's possible to generate conflicting predictions from the same data set. For instance, the long term predition below is bearish. I used the same formula as above, changing only one number.
In my analysis, 80% of the long term projection runs were bullish. The bearish projections that used th elast 100 days had an increased weighting given to Bitcoin procementments over the last 30 days.
As such, I will use the three forumula's above in future calculations. My preference is for the last projection. I think this projection does the best job at incorporating data from the last 100 days, while paying more attention to recent price movements.